Hong Kong property transactions surged to a four-month high in April, while the value and volume of home sales hit their highest level in 24 months, according to the latest official data, underscoring the resilience of the city’s real estate sector amid uncertainties over interest rates and the US-Israel war on Iran.
A total of 8,692 transactions across homes, offices, shops, car parking spots and industrial spaces were concluded last month, up 12.3 per cent from March’s 7,737 deals, according to data released on Tuesday by the Land Registry. The total sales value rose 17 per cent to about HK$72.9 billion (US$9.3 billion).
Sales of new and second-hand residential units climbed 16.7 per cent month on month to 7,368 in April, the highest since April 2024 when 8,551 units were sold, the data showed. The sales value in April increased about 15.4 per cent over March to HK$63.67 billion.
“The number of new home sales registrations has rebounded significantly, coupled with stable performance in the secondary market and commercial and industrial properties, resulting in a continued boom in the market,” said Derek Chan Hoi-chiu, head of research at Ricacorp Properties.
Given the strong sales of new homes in recent weeks, Chan estimated that primary residential transactions in May could exceed 4,300, boosting overall property deals to about 8,730.
Prospective buyers queue at the Lai Chi Kok sales office of Pavilia Farm III, April 18, 2026. Photo: Jelly Tse
A steady recovery in the city’s residential market was spurring a wider recovery for the city’s office and retail segments, according to Morgan Stanley.
On Monday, the US investment bank upgraded its forecast for the city’s home prices to a 12 per cent increase this year from 10 per cent previously, and anticipated another 5 per cent rise in 2027, it said in a report.
Morgan Stanley added that the office segment was likely to see some relief with Central district poised to command rent increases of 5 per cent from the previous estimate of 3 per cent.
Retail rents were tipped to turn positive by year-end but would still likely log a yearly decline of 3 per cent, compared with a 10 per cent drop in 2025.
Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reiterated its warning over the uncertain direction of interest rates amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted oil supplies across the world.
The city’s de facto central bank said US interest-rate movements were affected by the conflict in Iran, which had led to higher oil prices and thereby impacted consumer prices.
Despite a ceasefire since last month, analysts have forecast that the war would reduce the chances of a rate cut this year. Hong Kong’s monetary policy moves in lockstep with the US to maintain the local currency’s peg to the dollar.
Morningstar was now expecting a single rate cut this year instead of two, while JPMorgan Chase forecast a rate pause over the next four quarters.
Source: SCMP
